Article contributed by Ren & Heinrich. Follow them on Medium here.
In this article, I will introduce you to 5 models and theories that see Bitcoin at $1 million or higher in 2030. No crackpot theories, but solid, mathematically justified calculations that — so far — have not been refuted.
Let’s jump right in!
1. Internet Adoption Rate vs Bitcoin
Technology adoption rates follow S-curves, meaning that initial growth is fast until it levels off when saturation is reached. Cane Island compared the rate of global internet adoption rates with Bitcoin’s price and realized that the latter is following the first closely. According to the chart below, BTC will reach $1 million sometimes around 2030.
For better understanding, I added another chart. It compares the growth curve of internet users with that of Bitcoin users. Things seem to be on track!
Here is one more chart by Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity. He plotted Bitcoin addresses holding more than $1 on the S-curve based on mobile phone subscriptions. It suggests a similar overall long-term growth path for Bitcoin according to which BTC price should reach $1 million by 2030.
2. Robert Breedlove’s BTC to $12,5 Million Model
Robert Breedlove, CEO of Parallax Digital (a US digital asset investment firm), believes that hyperinflation will push Bitcoin’s to $12,5 million by 2031. His calculations are based on the expansion of M2 money supply and the loss of USD purchasing power this causes. By the way, his model sees Bitcoin price reach $100.000 in 2022.
Robert Breedlove’s case for $12,5 million BTC by 2031.
3. Gregg Foss’s BTC-Bond Allocation Model
Ex-fund manager Greg Foss believes that Bitcoin will replace a part of bond allocation. He sees Bitcoin getting 5% in the global bond market which has a size of $900 trillion. This means, Bitcoin allocation would make up $45 trillion which is not all unlikely considering that $20–30 trillion of today’s global bond market have a negative yield. According to Greg Foss, this would bring BTC price to about $2 million.
4. ARK Invest’s Bitcoin at $1 Million Theory
The company sees a number of reasons that will drive BTC price to more than $1 million by 2030, as you can see in the chart below.
Among other things, ARK invest believes that there is a high chance that more countries will adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in the coming years and that a part of international bank settlements will be done using BTC.
5. Bitcoin’s Power Law Corridor
Bitcoin’s Power Law Corridor is the channel within which Bitcoin has been growing in price since its inception, when charted on log price over square-root time scales. If the model holds, Bitcoin will reach $1 million in late 2027.
Do you know any other models which I should add to this list? Let me know in the comments!
Disclaimer: This article is not intended as investment advice. It is only for educational and entertainment purposes.
