Overview
- Inflation numbers incoming.
- Bitcoin’s triangle pattern falters.
- 3AC founders missing.
- New Layer-1 enters the spotlight.
Good morning Banter Fam,
It’s showtime! Tomorrow the ever-important inflation print gets released to anxious worldwide market participants. So what does it all mean?
Today we’ll cover the three scenarios and what they could mean for the markets.
Big Event: Inflation Print
Tomorrow’s a big day for the markets. The Inflation Rate YoY and Core Inflation rate YoY will be announced. The market is forecasting 8.8% inflation after last month’s 8.6%. If the print comes in higher than expected, watch out, it means the Fed’s aggressive efforts to fight inflation are inadequate. The market will surely dump further in anticipation of increased hawkish actions.
Simply put, the best we can all hope for is a lower-than-expected print which will have the opposite effect. Inflation numbers are scheduled to be released tomorrow at 08:30 am EST. Volatility will reign during the event; it’s not recommended you take trades during the time.
The THREE scenarios and POSSIBLE market reaction.
Inflation YoY forecast: 8.8%
Previous Inflation print: 8.6%
Higher than expected print: Negative. More downside.
Lower than expected print: Positive. Likely retracement.
Meets expectations: Neutral. More of the same, maybe a rebound in prices.
Market update 🌍
Bitcoin invalidated the triangle pattern yesterday by breaking below the top, and in turn, bitcoin began its journey to the ever-important 19k support zone. The 4H chart shows the relative indicator (RSI) reaching an oversold area, but the downward trend shows little indication of reversing before the aforementioned support level.
High-resolution chart
Demand for the dollar continues to skyrocket while economies mitigate the troubling effects of inflation and financial hardship. The Dollar Index (DXY) continues on its upward path on the weekly chart. Every week it looks more and more likely that the DXY will continue upwards until reaching a long-standing channel resistance. A continual increase of the DXY doesn’t bode well for the stock market and crypto alike. We’d ultimately want to see this uptrend broken.
High-resolution chart
| US markets close | Gain |
| S&P 500 | -1.15% |
| Nasdaq | +0.66% |
| Dow | -0.72% |
| VIX | +6.13% |
Notable Gainers (24h):
| Protocol (Coin) | Price ($) | Gain (%) |
| Arweave (AR) | 12.00 | +3.6 |
| Polygon (MATIC) | 0.57 | +2.9 |
| Loopring (LRC) | 0.39 | +2.3 |
| Trust Wallet (TWT) | 0.84 | +8.0 |
| Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index | 16 Extreme Fear |
| “Crypto” Google Trends 90d | 0 (possible misprint) |
| “Bitcoin” Google Trends 90d | 33 |
Newswatch 📰
Chinese Bank Liquidity pressures. In a story that has been kept quiet by Chinese media, all four major Chinese banks are currently experiencing liquidity issues and minor protests are beginning to spring up. And get this, the government was supposedly altering the results of covid test to stop people from attending. More reason for self-sovereignty? Of course!
3AC founders missing. Founders Zhu Su and Kyle Davies are nowhere to be found as court-ordered liquidators visited the 3AC headquarters in Singapore only to find an abandoned office. On July 8th, the firm filed for Bankruptcy in US courts. To make things worse, investigators fear the duo still has access to 3AC funds. I can hear the new TV series music intro, “Where in the world are Su and Kyle.”
The phishing threats on Uniswap (UNI) continue. Originally many took to Twitter to talk about a Uniswap exploit that had been supposedly identified, making the UNI price slightly drop. In reality though there was no exploit, but instead a phishing campaign where scammers created a site that impersonated Uniswap V3, tricking users to sign malicious transactions.
News Tidbits:
- Bitcoin miners shut down in Texas amidst a record heat wave.
At the protocol level ⛓
Arbitrum Nova is live! The new chain on Arbitrum is now live. From the looks of it, the new chain will handle smaller transactions while the main chain will focus on DeFi and NFTs. This also means the Arbitrum Odyssey program will likely restart soon. Keep an eye out for our Week 2 Arbitrum Odyssey Guide.
The next major L1? Introducing Sui Blockchain, which was co-founded by former Facebook Novi employees. After raising funds last year in a Series A led by Andreessen Horowitz, the team has now raised a $200m series B with a $2B valuation. To learn more about Sui click here.
Protocol level tidbits:
- A sneak peek into Contango DEX.
- Metis $100M Ecosystem Fund.
- It’s time for the Solana Summer Camp Hackathon.
- Back to basics: MakerDAO.
NFT & metaverse update 🐵
Playmates enter The Sandbox. Playboy has partnered with The Sandbox to build a “Meta Mansion” on the network. Settle down boys!
Ducati enters the web3 world. Ducati is teaming up with NFT PRO to deploy upcoming projects using Ripple XRP Ledger blockchain.
Tidbits:
- Gamestop releases a public beta NFT marketplace.
Banter’s take
Here we are, like old economists standing firmly, awaiting inflation prints. News is additionally slow, likely pending the announcement. Inflation is the all-powerful ruler. So what happens if the print comes back lower?
Nobody truly knows, but a large amount of pinned-up liquidity could quickly enter the market to increase prices. Crypto typically reacts more aggressively than traditional markets. Chances are low, but crazier things have occurred in the past. Be ready for anything! If we’re lucky, it’s GO TIME.
Gabri
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Disclaimer
Good Morning Crypto (issued by Crypto Banter) is a newsletter for entertainment purposes only.
All opinions expressed by the publisher, writers, and chartists should not be construed as financial advice and do not necessarily reflect the views of Crypto Banter. The publisher, writers, and chartists may hold positions in the tokens and assets discussed. Readers are encouraged to do their own research.
