Newly released data points toward a broader trend ahead, Terra (LUNA) enters into new territory, and a highly centralized Ronin Chain (RON) experiences the worst hack in crypto history.
All that and much more!
TL;DR:
- The beginning of a broader trend.
- Terra (LUNA) price discovery.
- Peace talks.
- NFTs and metaverse update.
The big story
Crypto markets are grabbing attention again with recent runs that saw bitcoin reach yearly highs. Are we just getting started, or is it time to take some profits?
According to historical data, a Delphi Digital study suggests that bitcoin could just be getting started. After the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) reaches >70, bitcoin typically experiences positive returns 70% of the time, with an average return of ~55%. A similar gain would put bitcoin near all-time highs in late June.
The futures markets simultaneously point to sell pressure subsidization, which typically foreshadows rallies.
Delphi Digital additionally notes that Q2 (Apr-July) typically encompasses the most significant returns for markets in the previous 30 years. Still, key risks linger with weaning global liquidity. The study notes the dollar index (DXY) 102 level as a key resistance to watch; if broken, it could falter global risk appetite (crypto included).
Market update
Bitcoin (BTC) pauses from the recent runup to test US$48,000 resistance. The RSI has dipped from highs on the 4-hour charts, suggesting a slight pullback, but selling bitcoin under current scenarios remains a very speculative move. Strong support sits at the 45-46k zone.
Source; TradingView
Terra (LUNA) punctured through highs with an 11% gain today, backed by solid volume levels. The push could see LUNA enter a period of price discovery. LUNA was at US$107.89 at the time of writing.
| US markets close | Gain |
| S&P 500 | +1.43% |
| Nasdaq | -1.90% |
| Dow | +1.25% |
| VIX | -7.98% |
Notable Gainers (24h)
| Protocol (Coin) | Price ($) | Gain (%) |
| Aave (AAVE) | 213.56 | +26 |
| THORChain (RUNE) | 11.98 | +18% |
| Waves (WAVES) | 50.59 | +17% |
| Near Protocol (NEAR) | 14.21 | +11% |
| The Graph (GRT) | 0.48 | +11% |
| Terra (LUNA) | 108.03 | +11% |
| Pocket Network (POKT) | 1.19 | +26% |
| Skale (SKL) | 0.211 | +17% |
| Astar (ASTAR) | 0.13 | +11% |
| Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index | 56 Greed (-4) |
| “Crypto” Google Trends | 32 |
| “Bitcoin” Google Trends | 34 (-3) |
Newswatch
- Continuing peace talks. Russia claims it will scale back operations in Kyiv during peace talk negotiations in Turkey as the US warns the threat is not over. Russia has begun to reposition troops away from the capital and some analysts noted it’s in areas where Russia had been losing. Ukrainian President Zelensky said only concrete negotiation results can be trusted. Under the current proposal, Ukraine would be disallowed to join alliances or host foreign troops but joining the European Union could be an option.
- Apples and bitcoins. For those who missed it, a rumor that Apple will announce a Strike Apple Pay integration during the Miami Bitcoin Conference was covered by Crypto Banter yesterday.
On-chain
- Not to be outdone. MicroStrategy subsidiary, MacroStrategy, closed a US$205 million bitcoin collateralized loan with Silvergate Bank to purchase bitcoin. Micheal Saylor’s MicroStrategy currently holds 125,051 bitcoin at the average price of US$32,000.
- Largest hack in blockchain history! Ronin (RON) cross-chain bridge was hacked for
- 173,000 ETH and 25.5 million USDC. The funds were then transferred to FTX and Crypto.com, where actions are being taken to retrieve the tokens. The hack centered around exploiting four of Ronin’s nine validators and raises questions regarding the centralized nature of the chain.
- Liquidity vampire named Binance. Binance Bridge 2.0 will now support the conversion of nearly all ERC-20 tokens into BEP-20 B-tokens, which can directly access dApps on the Binance native BNB chain.
Notable events
- Soccer superstar, Messari, signs a US$20 million, three-year deal with Socios (SOCIO) to promote fan tokens.
- Kusama (KSM) parachain, Moonriver (MOVR), announces the start of the US$150 million Moonriver Grant Hackathon.
- Shina Inu (SHIB) hints at a significant announcement on March 30.
NFT and metaverse update
- How much for your NFT? LooksRare (LOOKS) has teamed up with Etherscan to launch a new chat function that would allow individuals to chat with NFT holders.
- Opensea announces it will begin selling Solana-based NFTs in April.
NFT volume gainers (24h)
Source: CoinGecko
Banter’s take
Macro-centered talks are beginning to flip to protocol-level discussions in the cryptoverse. Data suggests that bitcoin could just be getting started in a much broader trend. Historically, Q2 embodies the bulls, and negative sentiment is changing quickly. With war showing promising signs of winding down, we could be entering a new prolonged period of risk-on appetite.
Thanks for reading the Morning Brew!
Gabri
