Overview
- FOMC overview.
- BTC and NASDAQ testing key levels.
- TradFi embracing DeFi?
It’s the day you’ve all been waiting for…
The Federal Open Market Committee, otherwise known as the FOMC, otherwise known as the harbinger of doom, is scheduled to meet today. And the world is watching.
If you watched the show yesterday, you’ll have heard Ran and Alex Kruger discussing the most likely outcomes, with Alex suggesting a 50 basis points (bps) rate is almost 100% certain.
The question then, doesn’t feel so much what the Fed will do, but how the markets will respond, with some analysts suggesting this could be a ‘sell the rumour, buy the news’ event.
Tedtalksmacro suggests, “A 50bps hike has been anticipated for weeks now and the market has priced it in accordingly, leaving risks skewed to the upside at the 18:00 UTC announcement.”.
He also specifies that its the post-FOMC press conference, in which Jerome Powell will speak and give what is known as ‘forward guidance’, which will most affect markets: a more dovish tone will likely precipitate some kind of relief rally, while hawkish guidance will only spook markets (equities & crypto) across the board.
This chart says it all: the dollar index (DXY) has recently closed at the highest levels since 2008, and now finds itself battling to flip resistance into support.
The outcome of today’s FOMC meeting could be the catalyst that decides whether this thing rips, or retraces. In the event of the latter, don’t be surprised to see a bounce across assets.
Either way, be sure to tune in to Crypto Banter, as we’ll be live streaming during the event.
Market update 🌍
The DXY is teasing us with a continuation of its recent rally.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s correlation with the NASDAQ remains at all-time-highs. Whether we like it or not, Bitcoin looks likely to go wherever the NASDAQ does.
Still, there’s a strong case to be made that Bitcoin continues to show relative strength in the face of all this macro uncertainty: tech stocks have taken a huge hit in 2022, with 20% of stocks comprising the NASDAQ down more than 75% from all-time-highs.
However, this chart from Realm Ninja Crypto paints an interesting picture:
As they suggested on April 24th, “the NASDAQ heading to test a key major support level. Nasdaq never actually touched the support level on the previous market correction, but it’s would be key to hold this level in this imminent test.”
The test is now underway: holding the above yellow line would be a major boon for equities and crypto alike. Chances are high that this ‘test’ will be complete by the close of play today. So pay close attention.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is facing its own TA test: this descending wedge pattern. Descending wedges statistically break to the upside, and while Bitcoin is, at the time of writing, testing that downtrending resistance line, we would need to see a convincing daily close above it before drawing any meaningful conclusion.
| Protocol (Coin) | Price ($) | Gain (%) |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 2.30 | +9.49 |
| Tron (TRN) | 0.07549 | +8.43 |
| XDC Network (XDC) | 0.06493 | +4.93 |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | 23.96 | +4.67 |
| Yearn Finance (YFI) | 17,751.29 | +2.81 |
| Monero (XMR) | 0.36 | +2.77 |
| Ox (ZRX) | 0.7315 | +2.75 |
| Near Protocol (NEAR) | 12.20 | +2.72 |
| The Sandbox | 2.20 | +2.65 |
| Gala (GALA) | 0.1424 | +2.54 |
| Moonbeam (GLMR) | 2.60 | +2.75 |
| ICON (ICX) | 0.6614 | +2.64 |
| Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index | 21 Extreme Fear |
| “Crypto” Google Trends | 34 (35) |
| “Bitcoin” Google Trends | 45 (42) |
Newswatch 📰
Ouch. Microstrategy earnings came in, and they were disappointing. We can assume that Michael Saylor doesn’t care, however, as his time horizon is infinity. Plus, the company announced that they’d could be exploring yield farming… from a maxi?! Or is he..?
In an adoption news story, ICYMI of Virginia County looks to crypto yield farming for pension system investments.
Airbnb + Crypto? In a recent tweet, AirBnB’s Brain Cheskey stated that an incoming announcement would amount to the biggest change to AirBnB in a decade. Whether this refers to any kind of crypto-related integration remains to be seen, however, we do know that the company has long had an interest in crypto.
Terra founder Do Kwon tweet confirms that 4pool is now live.
On-chain ⛓
Whales appear to be enjoying current prices, and using these levels to accumulate, according to econometrics:
Data from Crypto Quant shows ETH outflows from Coinbase have just reached an All-Time-High:
Banter’s take
Grab your popcorn, folks. This is one of the most significant days for the market all year. And we’ll be keeping you posted every step of the way. We believe the most likely outcome remains some kind of relief rally, but that is by no means to suggest it will be long-lasting. The macro uncertainty remains. The US is effectively in a recession. And while even legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones implied on CNBC crypto exposure at this time is superior to equities,
