TL;DR
- Inflation data incoming.
- Sell-off imminent?
- Do Kwon buys but the market doesn’t respond.
- A potential new European “crypto hub”.
Red alert: Will the Federal Reserve (Fed) slam on the breaks? Is a crypto dump incoming?
The inflation data we’ve all been waiting for is coming, with analysts expecting anything as “low” as 8.5%, and as high as 10%. Given the scale of the situation at hand, the markets are pricing in a 50 basis points (bps) rate hike at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in May. This means we could remain in a state of uncertainty until a decision is confirmed. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing tremendous strength, having rallied across the weekend in light of the market-wide uncertainty.
However, a sell-off on stocks would spell bad news for crypto. As former Bitfinex CEO and 100x co-founder, Arthur Hayes, wrote in his latest Medium article, the NASDAQ and BTC remain highly correlated, for better or worse.
But it’s not all bad news, according to Hayes, who expects a US$10,000 ether before the end of the year. However, what goes up may come down first. According to his article, entitled “The Q-Trap”, he anticipates a US$28,000 BTC and a US$2000 ETH in Q2: in other words, at some point in the next three months.
Market update 🌍
Since the bundle of announcements at the Miami Conference, bitcoin (BTC) traded sideways on an overall quiet weekend. Several large purchases were reported through whale watchers. Notably, the richest non-exchange wallet collected 3,241 BTC in 24 hours. BTC finished the US weekend up 1.10% to US$43,231.
Source: Trading View
TVL update (7d)
Total valued locked (TVL) fell modestly across the board to US$224 billion last week from a 3-month high of US$2.33 billion. Solana (SOL) +2.65%, Astar (ASTAR) +17%, and Near Protocol (NEAR) +44% all went against the grain and saw some gains. Last week, Near Protocol released a stablecoin that shares similar tokenomics to Terra’s (LUNA).
Source: Defi Llama
Notable Gainers (7d)
| Protocol (coin) | Price ($) | Gain (%) |
| Mina Protocol (MINA) | 3.14 | +20 |
| Monero (XMR) | 243.12 | +14 |
| Near Protocol (NEAR) | 16.70 | +13 |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | 0.15 | +12 |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | 35.82 | +7 |
| Titan Swap (TITAN) | 3.90 | +123% |
| ICHI (ICHI) | 133.27 | +86 |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | 4.36 | +31 |
| Astar (ASTAR) | 0.30 | +27 |
| OED (OKT) | 46.77 | +21 |
| Astroport (ASTRO) | 3.33 | +13 |
| Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index | 37 Fear (+3) |
| “Crypto” Google Trends | 31 |
| “Bitcoin” Google Trends | 36 (-1) |
Newswatch 📰
- Europe’s newest crypto hub. The government of Slovenia unveils a flat-tax proposal of 5% on all crypto transactions larger than 10,000 euros in the name of “debureaucratization” and simplification of the current system.
- Crypto adoption studies. A report released by Checkout.com notes the growing demand for cryptocurrency. The study highlights that 40% of adults between 18-and 35 will pay for goods with crypto in the coming year and that 82% of merchants who adopted crypto saw an increase in customers.
- Not Gamestop but bitcoin. Robin Hood announced BTC as the most traded asset on the platform in 2022 and plans to integrate the Bitcoin Lightning Network for its two million users.
- Orange-pilled Dutch? The Netherlands Authority for Financial Markets announces they will begin educating students about investing in cryptocurrencies.
On-chain ⛓
- The Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) added US$100 million in AVAX tokens to the UST reserve last week, making it the first asset besides BTC to be added. The LFG additionally added a total of 4,130 BTC in total.
- Frax follows Terra’s lead. The team behind Frax is considering adding billions of dollars’ worth of major blockchain tokens to utilize as collateral for its hybrid stablecoin. Frax and Terra recently partnered in the newly created 4pool on Curve, one of the largest liquidity pools in crypto.
NFT & metaverse update 🐵
- Multi-chain non fungible tokens (NFT).The multi-chain operating system, Celer Network (CELR), partner with NFT-based network Flow (FLOW) to enable NFT bridging across 24 chains on its native cBridge.
Notable mints:
| Project | Community score | Mint price | Date of mint | Time (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAKI | 81 | 0.07 ETH | April 10 | 02:00 |
Banter’s take
Uncertainty reigns, with little indication of any clarity coming until the markets have fully absorbed the inflation data, and the Fed’s expected response. Now’s a good time to sit on your hands, and if you’ve got dry powder (always keep a portion of your portfolio in stables), set some low-ball limit orders to benefit from any upcoming volatility.
–Gabri
